Breeders' Cup Handicapping: Avoid the Longshots?

I was just reading an article on Breeders' Cup handicapping that initially made a lot of sense to me. It says, in part, that "longshots are for experienced Breeders' Cup handicappers".

I decided to do a bit of poking around in the Breeders' Cup results to see if this was true. Here is a history of the payouts for the winning horse of the Breeders' Cup Classic:

2005 - Saint Liam - 6.80
2004 - Ghostzapper - 7.00
2003 - Pleasantly Perfect - 30.40
2002 - Volponi - 89.00 (43.5 to 1!)
2001 - Tiznow - 15.80
2000 - Tiznow - 20.40
1999 - Cat Thief - 41.00
1998 - Awesome Again - 11.40
1997 - Skip Away - 5.60
1996 - Alphabet Soup - 41.70
1995 - Cigar - 3.40
1994 - Concern - 17.00
1993 - Arcangues - 269.20 (133 to 1!)
1992 - A.P. Indy - 6.20
1991 - Black Tie Affair - 10.00
1990 - Unbridled - 15.20
1989 - Sunday Silence - 6.00
1988 - Alysheba - 5.00
1987 - Ferdinand - 4.00
1986 - Skywalker - 22.20
1985 - Proud Truth - 16.80
1984 - Wild Again - 64.40

If you take definition of a longshot as 10-1 or better ($22 payoff), that means only six of the 22 Classic winners have been longshots, so I guess the advice here is sound.

Of course, what stands out looking at these results isn't the sound bets made on favorites or upper-ranked horses, but the incredible payoffs on the long shots we're supposed to avoid. I really wish I had made the "mistake" of placing a sizable wager on Arcangues!

Technorati tag(s): breeders cup, breeders cup betting, horse racing odds

Breeders Cup Classic: Can Anyone Beat Bernardini

With the Breeders Cup only seven weeks or so away, everyone's talking about Bernardini, Preakness winner and, more recently, winning horse in the Travers Stakes. Is this racehorse worth the 7/4 odds being offered on him at present?

Well, have a look at Lava Man. This 5-year old gelding took the Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar on Aug. 20th in an awe-inspiring fashion, breaking away from the field on the final turn and going on to win by 2 1/4 lengths. 3-0-1 in 2005, he now has six wins in 2006, and has proven he can run successfully against the best.

Then there's the little-talked-about Shirocco. This German thoroughbred could be a dark horse (sorry) in this year's Classic. 7-1-3 in 12 career starts, and fresh off a victory in France's Prix Foy.

So while the buzz around Bernardini's extraordinary year is certainly warranted, don't discount the horses he hasn't run against yet -- or especially the horse race he hasn't won yet!

Technorati tag(s): breeders cup, breeders cup classic, bernardini

NFL Betting Season Starts with Winless Steelers

First of all, sorry for not posting here in quite a while. But for the avid sports betting fan, what has there been. Baseball? Sorry, I can get some decent sleeping pills from my doctor. US Open Golf? Tiger Woods is great and all, but my eyes get blurry trying to find that little white ball in the air. US Open Tennis? I love watching the girls, but I wouldn't know a good bet from a bad one when it comes to the tennis court.

And then there's football. NFL football.

As everyone knows, the season's set to kick off on September 7th, with Miami set to takes on the Steelers. Hard to believe, but last year's Super Bowl champions are winless in all of their preseason outings so far. However, they are at least 2-3 ATS, so there's hope yet.

Keep an eye on running back Willie Parker in this matchup. The previously undrafted rookie has just put the pen to a $13.6 million, four-year contract that runs through the 2009 season. Hopefully his outstanding Super Bowl performance will carry over into the regular season.

I haven't seen the NFL odds on this game yet, but unless the spread is horrendous, I'm probably going with Pittsburgh. Preseason bah ... once these guys take to the field in a game that actually means something, they'll shine (Miami's impressive 29-9 victory against St. Louis yesterday nothwithstanding).

Technorati tag(s): nfl betting, pittsburgh steelers