Stanley Cup Finals: Duck and Cover

The Beasts from the East have been tamed.

The Ottawa Senators are going back north with their tails between their legs after Wednesday's 1-0 loss to the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim was a mere –125 chalk at home, down from –140 in the opener. The public may have been expecting a better performance from Ottawa after Monday's 3-2 loss. They didn't get one. (More Stanley Cup NHL hockey odds from Bodog Sportsbook.)

The "rust" excuse from Game 1 just doesn't hold water anymore. The Ducks were all over the Senators in Game 2 like white on rice. Ottawa mustered only 16 shots on goal, barely testing Jean-Sebastien Giguere. At the other end of the ice, Ray Emery was a rock, stopping 30 of 31 shots in a losing effort. Samuel Pahlsson finally solved Emery with less than six minutes left in the game.

Anaheim's size advantage was prominent on Wednesday. The Ducks out-hit the Sens 36-28, forcing the Senators to commit an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers. Ottawa doesn't usually get pushed around like this, which leads to the central plotline for Game 3: Did the Senators fail to bring their A-game to Anaheim, or did the Ducks beat it out of them?

I think it's the first – although that doesn't guarantee anything for the Senators once they get back home. "For some reason, we're playing differently than the way we've played," defenseman Joe Corvo told reporters after Game 2. "We have to find a way to get that feeling back."

Either Corvo is being cryptic, or he really doesn't know what the Senators should do about it. But they've got until Saturday to figure it out. I suspect Bryan Murray will adjust for Game 3 by throwing speed at the Ducks, rather than try to match them hit-for-hit like they did Wednesday. That's like bringing a knife to a gunfight.

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French Open Odds: Who Will Win?

Does Rafael Nadal have feet of clay?

The reigning two-time French Open winner had a very rare clay-court loss at last week’s warmup tournament in Hamburg. Ominously for Nadal supporters, the winner was Roger Federer. Finally, something to look forward to at Roland Garros.

Nadal remains the overwhelming favorite to win the French Open. Even after losing to his rival, the Mallorcan maestro is still 81-1 on clay over the past two years. And Nadal is still 5/1 lifetime against Federer on this surface. Nobody would be surprised if it takes Federer or anyone else on the ATP Tour another two years to solve Nadal. But at least we have some intrigue now.

French Open odds and men's tennis betting right here!

The women’s draw usually doesn’t take the back seat, especially in a strong field where six or seven women can be considered legitimate contenders. But Justine Henin is the clear favorite, and for good reason. She’s 47-3 on clay over the past two years, winning the French Open in 2005 and 2006 to go along with her 2003 title.

Most of Henin’s opponents at Roland Garros had some issue or other heading into this tournament. If anyone is going to take her down, I think it will be Jelena Jankovic. Check out the biceps on this one. She looks like she could snap Henin in half. More importantly, she took Henin to three sets in each of their five matches, including a pair of French Open warmups earlier this month.

Jankovic is on the cusp of stardom. But the tone of some of Jankovic’s statements in the press suggests she may not have confidence in her ability to beat Henin. "I won this tournament," she said after last week’s standout performance at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. "You know why? Because Henin didn’t come." Bad news, Jelena: Henin did indeed come to Roland Garros.

Women's French Open odds are here!

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Indy 500 Odds: Who Will Win?

Sam Hornish Jr. may be the defending Indianapolis 500 champion, but Dan Wheldon is clearly the favorite to win at Indy this year. Wheldon won the Indy 500 back in 2005 and likely would have repeated as champ last year if not for some bad luck late in the race. Wheldon led 148 of the 200 laps in last year’s race, but a tire puncture forced him out of the lead and he ended up finishing third. Oh, and Wheldon has already shown he’s a winner this season with two wins in four races. The Bodog.com oddsmakers definitely agree that Wheldon is the man to beat at Indy, after setting him as a 9/4 favorite.

Hornish Jr. can race, but if Wheldon’s tire had held up last year there’s no way he would have driven away with his first Indy 500 win. Hornish Jr. barely defeated rookie driver Marco Andretti last year, as he only defeated him by 0.0635 seconds. The oddsmakers must think Andretti had a little beginner’s luck last year after setting him at 16/1 to win this year’s Indy 500, while Hornish Jr. comes in at 5/1.

Also in at 5/1 is the always dangerous Helio Castroneves. The Brazilian knows how to win at the Brickyard having won back-to-back Indy 500s in 2001 and 2002. Castroneves will start on the pole this year after posting the fastest time in qualifying, and that could be the advantage he needs to drink from the milk jug a third time.

The fan favorites in the race likely don’t have much of a chance at seeing the checkered flag; I’m talking about are Danica Patrick (30/1) and Michael Andretti (16/1). Patrick is once again trying to become the first-ever female driver to win at the Brickyard. She came third in her Indy 500 debut two years ago, but couldn’t match that last year when she finished eighth. Patrick will be one of three women in this year’s Indy, as Sarah Fisher and Milka Duno will both be trying to steal her crown as racing’s best female driver.

Michael Andretti has had many disappointing days at Indianapolis over his long racing career. Andretti has raced in the Indy 500 15 times and has yet to win it. His best finish came in 1991 when he placed second. He came in third behind his son Marco in last year’s Indy 500.

Complete list of Bodog Indy 500 odds

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Stanley Cup Playoffs: Why Being the Coach Can Sometimes Suck

Being the coach of an NHL team may sound like a good gig, but it can be a difficult job if you like to have job security. Or, if your boss happens to be Lou Lamoriello.

When your team is winning it’s great being the coach. All of your plays and planning are working to perfection and nothing you ever do is wrong. Once that winning stops, look out because everyone will be calling you out. You can go on making all the same decisions you made while you we’re winning, but now that those W’s have become L’s those decisions are all wrong. (For more NHL Stanley Cup hockey articles, check out Bodog Beat.)

Even winning isn’t good enough for some people. You can be voted as the best coach in the league and still end up looking for a job at the end of the season. Just ask Ted Nolan. What can hurt even more is not seeing it coming. Nolan at least knew his days in Buffalo were numbered, but I don’t think the same can be said for former Devils coach Claude Julien this season.

New Jersey was first in the Atlantic Division with a 47-24-8 record and only three regular-season games left when Julien was given the axe. If the Devils had won 48 games instead of 47, would Julien still have a job? Only Lamoriello knows that for sure. If you work for the Devils I wouldn’t recommend asking him, because he might fire you.

If you plan on becoming a coach in the NHL make sure your luggage is always ready to go and your resume is always up to date if you ever make it to the big leagues. The job security of an NHL head coach compares to the life expectancy of a house fly. The head coach to hold his current job the longest is Lindy Ruff, who has been with Buffalo since 1997. Only one other NHL head coach had been with his current team longer than seven years. Ten years is an eternity in coaching as most of the current bench bosses don’t have more than three years under their belt with their current team.

Betting on the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs? Get all your NHL hockey odds at the Bodog Sportsbook.

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Can Street Sense Win Triple Crown?

Not since Affirmed in 1978 has a thoroughbred won horse racing's prestigious Triple Crown. All eyes, therefore, will be on Street Sense this Saturday at the 2007 Preakness Stakes.

The current favorite for the $1-million Preakness Stakes (G1) drew post eight for the 1 3/16-mile contest, and trainer Carl Nafzger said Jim Tafel’s homebred Street Cry (Ire) colt will have to improve off his Kentucky Derby victory to capture the Preakness.

"Every athlete, every reporter, every professional has to continually step it up," Nafzger said. "If you don’t, then you’re gone." (Read the rest of the "Street Sense Walks" story here.)

Street Sense won the Derby by just over two lengths. He'll have to do better than that this weekend, but then that may be a tall order considering he's never been to Pimlico before. Street Sense is among eight Preakness entrants without a race at Pimlico. Only Xchanger has raced over the surface; he won the 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes on April 21.

Will Street Sense win the 2007 Preakness Stakes? Will Street Sense win the 2007 Triple Crown? Get your Preakness Stakes odds and Triple Crown horse racing futures from Bodog Racebook.

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Possible Preakness Stakes Horses to Challenge Street Sense

While Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense continues to lead the current Preakness Stakes odds, there's a number of other horses that could be putting the oh-my-god-what-a-run-from-behind horse to the test at Pimilico on 19 May.

Among the possible Preakness contenders:

• Mint Slewlep (yes, Slewlep, not Julep). Finished in forth position at the Withers Stakes at Acqueduct racetrack.
• Hard Spun. This fast horse, and runner-up at the Derby, is said to have a good chance at Pimlico, a fast horse's racetrack.
• Tueflesberg. Despite his 17th place showing in the Derby, trainer and co-owner Jamie Sanders confirmed yesterday the horse is Maryland-bound.
• King of the Roxy. Won the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park last fall.
• Xchanger. Didn't make it to the Derby, but will be at Pimilco.
• Flying First Class and/or Starbase, both 3-year-olds trained by D. Wayne Lucas.
• Chelokee. Another Derby no-show, that Michael Matz believes has what it takes to be a contender. While the horse will certainly be at Pimlico on the 19th, it's still uncertain whether he'll be run in the Preakness or the Barbaro Stakes.

Perhaps more so than some prior years, the 2007 Preakness is shaping up to be an exciting race. While I still think Street Sense is looking good for the race, it's anything but a given that this horse will gallop to victory in the second leg of the triple crown.

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NBA Playoffs: "Bounce Back" or "Zig Zag" Theory Explained

The harder they fall, the higher they bounce back.

That's the basic premise behind one of the most common strategies in sports betting. The "bounce back" (or "zig zag") angle recommends betting on the team that lost its last game. That play looks even sexier in the NBA postseason, since each matchup (after Game 1) is also a revenge game.

This strategy is a wonderful thing for sharp handicappers – because it's hokum, and so many people are apparently using it. Look at the some of the line changes we've already seen this year. For example, the Golden State Warriors were 9.5-point road underdogs in their Game 2 loss against the Dallas Mavericks, then 3.5-point home dogs in Game 3. So much for home-court advantage being worth four points. Never mind that the Warriors did come back to win and cover – there was no such zig zagging in Games 4 or 5.

I'm not necessarily advocating an outright fade of the bounce back contingent. It's the ongoing quest for an easy buck that makes systems like this so addictive – and, eventually, so self-defeating. The ideal response would be to analyze each matchup on its own merits, paying attention to the adjustments the losing (and winning) coaches are likely to make after the previous contest.

There are some scenarios where a bounce back is more likely. A solid favorite may have extra motivation to win after an upset, and even in these heated playoffs, the winning team may stick with its game plan and fail to anticipate what adjustments the opponent will make.

On the other hand, sometimes a team loses just because the other team happens to be more talented. In a "sweep" situation, which the series between the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat rapidly degenerated into, you might find even more value in the winner because people are unwisely expecting the loser to bounce back.

Looking to make a few bucks on the NBA playoffs? Bodog Sportbook has got great NBA playoff odds.

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Cobalt Blue Out of Kentucky Derby Field

Following on the heels (or hooves) of a seventh-place finish in the Illinois Derby, and with disappointing workouts this week at Keeneland, Merv Griffin has pulled his horse Cobalt Blue from contention for this year's Kentucky Derby.

This is the second year in a row that the 81-year-old Griffin has suffered a Derby disappointment. In 2006 Griffin's Derby hopeful, Stevie Wonderboy, had to be withdrawn after suffering a fracture in his right front leg.

This does not mark the end of the Derby road for trainer Doug O'Neil, however. Great Hunter (now 17/1) and Liquidity (30/1) are both contenders for Saturday's race.

With a racing record of 3-4-1, Great Hunter seems to have a knack for running second; his first stakes win came in the Grade 1 Lane's End Breeders' Futurity, right before his distant third place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Liquidity is even more of a Kentucky Derby longshot. While he placed third in the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park, and second in the Hollywood Futurity, he has yet to win a stakes race. His prospects for a Derby victory, frankly, look slim.

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Kentucky Derby Betting: A Break from Basketball

The first round of the NBA playoffs may soon be over but the NBA Final is still along way off. If you're looking for the perfect distraction, you may want to consider betting on the Kentucky Derby.

The first jewel in the Triple Crown, the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby (or "Run for the Roses") takes place this Sunday, May 5, 2007 at Churchill Downs and horse racing fans from around the world will be glued to their seats -- waiting to see which horse will take the big prize.

Curlin is the current favorite at 3/1 odds to win, followed by Street Sense at 6/1, Circular Quay at 7/1, Nobiz Like Shobiz at 8/1, and Scat Daddy, also at 8/1 odds to win. (Bodog Racebook)

Scat Daddy is a steady runner and he's had great success in the Florida Derby. Circular Quay is proven over the Churchill Downs track but he hasn’t run in eight weeks. Street Sense is extremely talented and versatile and like Circular Quay he loves Churchill Downs. Curlin is undefeated in three career starts and with winning jockey Robbby Albarado in the saddle he is the slight favorite to win. But then again he's never had to compete against a field as deep as this one.

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