The harder they fall, the higher they bounce back.
That's the basic premise behind one of the most common strategies in sports betting. The "bounce back" (or "zig zag") angle recommends betting on the team that lost its last game. That play looks even sexier in the NBA postseason, since each matchup (after Game 1) is also a revenge game.
This strategy is a wonderful thing for sharp handicappers – because it's hokum, and so many people are apparently using it. Look at the some of the line changes we've already seen this year. For example, the Golden State Warriors were 9.5-point road underdogs in their Game 2 loss against the Dallas Mavericks, then 3.5-point home dogs in Game 3. So much for home-court advantage being worth four points. Never mind that the Warriors did come back to win and cover – there was no such zig zagging in Games 4 or 5.
I'm not necessarily advocating an outright fade of the bounce back contingent. It's the ongoing quest for an easy buck that makes systems like this so addictive – and, eventually, so self-defeating. The ideal response would be to analyze each matchup on its own merits, paying attention to the adjustments the losing (and winning) coaches are likely to make after the previous contest.
There are some scenarios where a bounce back is more likely. A solid favorite may have extra motivation to win after an upset, and even in these heated playoffs, the winning team may stick with its game plan and fail to anticipate what adjustments the opponent will make.
On the other hand, sometimes a team loses just because the other team happens to be more talented. In a "sweep" situation, which the series between the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat rapidly degenerated into, you might find even more value in the winner because people are unwisely expecting the loser to bounce back.
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